On March 13 this year, the British Government published its temporary tariff regime for a no deal Brexit. At the time of its announcement it gained little political attention, as it was the policy of the period to avoid no deal at all cost.

It’s significance, however, is hard to underplay. With the looming shadow of a pro-‘no deal’ Prime Minister being spat out the end of the Tory leadership contest next week, what the No Deal Tariff Regime actually mean for jobs, wages and businesses needs some serious scrutiny.

That is why, today, in Westminster, I am holding a debate looking at the disastrous consequences of these no deal plans. With the Royal Welsh Agricultural Show just a week away, I will be paying particular attention to what they mean for our farmers and rural communities.

First, let’s establish what this proposed temporary tariff regime is. In the event of a no deal on November 1 – if the incoming PM sticks to the Halloween Brexit promise – the British Government will have to introduce an independent tariff schedule for goods entering the newly formed UK Customs area.

In other words, the British Government will have to set new import and export taxes between the UK and Europe, as well as with the rest of the world.

A list of these tariffs will have to be submitted and agreed by the World Trade Organisation (WTO) – the body which oversees international trade. Putting aside the fact that some experts have said the British Government’s current proposals would be illegal under the WTO’s own rules, the proposals themselves quite openly commit the British Government to removing vital protections for food and agriculture overnight.

Tariffs on beef coming from places like South America will be halved to 45%, whilst tariffs on the export of Beef from the UK to same places will remain at 84%. The same situation is true for eggs and poultry. And whilst some protections will remain for lamb, nothing is being proposed to stem the flow of international exports flooding the UK market.

The Brexiteers will tell you this slash and burn approach to tariffs is nothing to worry about. Cheaper food and more choice, they will argue. But that isn’t the whole picture, it isn’t even half of it.

Domestic agriculture faces being undercut, by cheaper, lower-quality products.

The loss of the EU market alone would depress UK farm-gate prices by around 30%. The fact that the new Brexit deadline of 31 st October also coincides with very high numbers of finished lambs coming on the UK market will only worsen the situation. These lambs are bred for export, largely to Europe.

In a no deal scenario demand on the continent is likely to disappear.

The hundreds of thousands of additional lambs that will be ready for market at the end of October would see farm-gate prices squeezed even more.

The truth is, come October, if a no deal Brexit becomes a reality, we will see hundreds, if not thousands of farms facing impossible pressures - hit by a double whammy of important protections disappearing and the door closing on vital EU markets.

The knock-on effects for our rural communities would be seismic. Some have already drawn parallels between its potential consequences for rural life and the effects of heavy industry closing on the Valleys.

I can already hear the cries of ‘doom monger’ and ‘project fear’. But it is not me saying these things.

I didn’t want to be having this debate. I brought it to the House of Commons because of the calls of those representing the farming community.

The Director of the National Farming Union in Wales, John Mercer, told me “a scenario where Welsh farmers have to operate under the ‘no deal’ default of WTO tariffs will have devastating effects and will severely threaten the livelihoods and business of Welsh farmers.”

Glyn Roberts of the Farming Union of Wales had an equally stark warning: “It says it all that the prospect of a hard Brexit means a rich and highly developed state is stockpiling food and hoping to use an exemption to WTO rules on the Irish border which would more normally be applied in cases of war or famine.”

And for those Brexiteers that see the WTO as their saviour, I recommend listening to Pascal Lammy who should know a thing or two about these things as a former Director General of the World Trade Organisation. He equates leaving the European Union Single Market and Customs Union and trading on WTO terms as like leaving division one and facing a double relegation to division three.

Brexit is a complicated issue, but for our rural communities its effects are simple. They face economic extinction.

I won’t stand by and watch the backbone of our nation sacrificed at the totem of a no deal Brexit, because yet again, Westminster cannot be trusted to consider the interests of Wales.