Climate change report: UN finds huge risk of extreme heat, drought, floods and poverty if global warming passes 1.5C mark

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Patrick Grafton-Green8 October 2018

The world faces extreme heat, drought, floods and poverty if global warming passes the 1.5C mark, a major UN report has found.

The dramatic report is the starkest warning yet given by scientists about rising global temperatures.

It states that “rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented” changes are needed immediately to limit the potentially catastrophic dangers.

Global warming should be limited to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels rather than 2C to ensure the impacts of climate change are less extreme, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report says.

A heat map which shows the northern hemisphere 'roasting' in July
Climate Reanalyzer from the University of Maine

These impacts range from increased droughts and water scarcity to extreme weather, spread of diseases such as malaria, economic damage, and harm to yields of maize, rice and wheat.

At 2C, extremely hots days, like those experienced by parts of the northern hemisphere this summer, could become more severe and common which could increase heat related deaths and forest fires.

Sea level rises would be 10cm lower with a 1.5C temperature rise compared to 2C by 2100, while there would be worse impacts on coral reefs and the Arctic at higher temperatures.

The world has seen 1C of warming so far, with consequences such as more extreme weather already being felt, and there is more to come as temperatures continue to rise, the report says.

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Following devastating hurricanes in the US, droughts in Cape Town and forest fires in the Arctic, the IPCC report makes it clear that climate change is already happening. It warns that every fraction of additional warming could worsen the impact.

Limiting warming to 1.5C is already central to the Paris climate agreement, to which nearly 200 countries are signed. However the UN has previously criticised the accord for not doing enough to avoid the worst effects on climate change.

The report says this goal is possible but will require fast and far-reaching changes to power generation, industry, transport, buildings and potential shifts in lifestyle such as eating less meat.

It will also require action to take excess carbon emissions out of the atmosphere.

Earth heading irreversible damage and devastating consequences of global warming

What needs to be done?

Promises made by countries to cut their emissions up to 2030 will not limit global warming to 1.5C even if action is massively scaled up after the end of the next decade, the report warns.

Carbon dioxide emissions need to fall about 45 per cent from 2010 levels by 2030 and to "net zero" - so no more is being put into the atmosphere than is being removed by measures such as planting trees - by 2050, while other greenhouse gases will also need to decline steeply.

It will require a huge ramp-up in renewables so they generate 70-85 per cent of electricity supplies by 2050, while coal power's share of the mix tumbles to almost nothing.

There will also need to be emissions cuts in industry, transport and buildings as well as the restoring of forests and potential changes to lifestyle.

Residents queue to fill containers with water from a source of natural spring water in Cape Town
AP

The report also stresses the need for measures to take carbon out of the atmosphere, such as planting forests or capturing carbon and storing it underground.

Prof Corinne Le Quere, from the University of East Anglia, said: "For the UK, this means a rapid switch to renewable energy and electric cars, insulating our homes, planting trees, where possible walking or cycling and eating well - more plants and less meat - and developing an industry to capture carbon and store it underground.

"It also means adapting to the growing impacts of climate change that are felt here, particularly to the increasing flood risks from heavy rainfall and from sea level rise along our coasts."

What do the experts say?

Prof Jim Skea, from Imperial College London, one of the experts leading on the assessment, said the report was "unambiguous" on the difference in impacts between 1.5C and 2C of warming.

He said: "The changes that would be needed to keep global warming to 1.5C are really unprecedented in terms of their scale. We can't find any historical analogies for it.

"There are some areas we are making progress quickly enough that they are compatible with 1.5C, the example of renewables is one, where we've seen costs falling and deployment across the world.

"We need to extend this kind of progress on renewables to other areas."

Campaigners have urged rapid action in the wake of the report.

Matthew Spencer, Oxfam's director of campaigns and policy, warned the world was already seeing the beginning of "massive displacement and a shocking rise in hunger".

He said unless temperatures stayed below 1.5C, island nations would disappear beneath rising seas.

"Climate change has set our planet on fire, millions of people are already feeling the impacts, and the IPCC is clear that things could get much worse without immediate action,” he said.

Rachel Kennerley, climate campaigner for Friends of the Earth, warned the predicted loss of all coral reefs if governments could not contain warming.

This would mean a massive loss of fish that people rely on for food and costing lives and livelihoods, she said.

"That is the kind of reality we must face if governments don't take notice of this report," she said.

Dr Stephen Cornelius, chief adviser on climate change at WWF, said the world was already seeing the loss of natural habitats and species, shrinking ice caps and rising sea levels.

He said: "We have the targets, we have the solutions and the difference between impossible and possible is political leadership."

Additional reporting by Press Association