Libya: 11,000 Turkish-backed Syrian mercenaries remain, threatening commerce

Over 11,000 Turkish-backed Syrian mercenaries remain in Libya despite a ceasefire agreement that calls for the withdrawal of all foreign fighters, the Libya Review reported on Saturday.

At the same time, the humanitarian crisis increases in the country which has been in fragmented disorder for nearly a decade. At least 350,000 children, according to UNICEF, are in need of food and healthcare.

A ceasefire agreement called for the removal of all foreign fighters from the country, whose new government was only installed on March 15. However, a total of about 20,000 troops from Russia, Egypt and other countries have remained – the vast majority are Turkish, however, according to UN estimates.

Despite the agreement, 380 more Syrian troops arrived from Turkey last week, according to  the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The organisation said Turkey-backed Syrian rebels had opened recruitment centers in Aleppo for dispatching young men to western Libya with a monthly salary of up to $2,000. There have, however, been reports of these troops not receiving their salaries, and this could make them dangerous to civil order.

For now, all parties to the agreement have agreed to cease interference with Libya’s NOC and its production of oil. As a result, production has ramped up to about 1.3 million barrels per day from only about 700,000 when the civil war fighting stopped. France’s Total is negotiating with NOC to improve production and revenue.

But with boots on the ground from different factions, the danger of interference with badly-needed oil revenue is considerable.

For now, most participants have been pacified by the creation of a formal Libyan government with a $22 billion budget. The chance of getting a share in that sum is keeping the various powers-that-be occupied.

“The great fear of Libyans now is that Libya’s unity government is unified only by the promise of a flood of corruption. It’s the same promise that has papered over the competing visions of Turkey, Russia, the UAE and Egypt, who still have boots on the ground.

The detente will continue as long as the money flows, but will dissolve once the competing plans of these states to dominate Libya’s security and political reformation (not to mention oil infrastructure) collide,” writes Libyan political analyst Tarek Megerisi.

Turkey claims that it has a right to support the Libyan government. ““The other countries are helping a warlord. We are responding to an invitation from the legitimate government of Libya. That’s the difference between us,” Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday.

But the humanitarian crisis worsens in the country.

The most recent reports indicate an impoverishment of the middle class, of which 40 per cent of the total population (6.7 million people in 2019) has fallen into poverty.

According to the latest report from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) of November 25, 2020, 1.3 million Libyans will need humanitarian assistance in early 2021, which is a 40 per cent increase from report to 2020.

The health sector is in agony and the country lacks water and electricity is rationed.. Add to this runaway inflation and a deterioration in trade with a deficit trade balance, as well as disastrous policy by the Libyan Central Bank (BCL, based in Tripoli). Without forgetting the despair of young people (half of the population is under 25) without jobs or prospects; there is even an increase in the number of suicides, the UN says.

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