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Guinea-Bissau

GIEWS Country Brief: Guinea-Bissau 19-March-2019

Attachments

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  • Slightly above-average production gathered in 2018

  • Increasing cereal import requirement

  • Continued assistance still needed for vulnerable people

Slightly above-average production gathered in 2018

The planting of the 2019 cereal crops will start in May with the arrival of the seasonal rains, for harvesting from September.

Despite some localized flooding in June 2018 and Fall Armyworm attacks on the maize crop, the 2018 national cereal production was estimated at 224 000 tonnes, about 6 percent higher than last season’s output and 5 percent above the five-year average.

Concerning the pastoral situation, the natural pasture coverage is satisfactory and rains have filled the main water points at optimal levels across the country. Due to the abundance and diversification of biomass, the animal body condition is satisfactory. The health situation remains overall stable.

Increasing cereal import requirement

Over 45 percent of the national cereal utilization in the country is fulfilled by imports. Rice accounts for about 80 percent of the import requirements, followed by wheat, which accounts for about 15 percent. Despite a slight increase in total domestic production compared to the previous year, import requirements for the 2018/19 (November/October) marketing year are forecast at 150 000 tonnes, about one-fourth above the previous year and the average. The increase will allow traders to replenish their food stocks.

Moderate economic growth projected, food price inflation decreasing

According to the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU), the economic growth is forecast to remain strong, at about 5.1 percent in 2019 due to the recent high international cashew nut prices (the main driver of economic activity) and high public investment in infrastructure and social services. The year-on-year inflation rate in 2019 is forecast at about 1.9 percent, slightly up from 1.5 percent in 2018 as a result of strong domestic demand.

Continued assistance still needed for most vulnerable people

The overall food situation is satisfactory across the country. However, continued assistance is still needed for the most vulnerable population. According to the November 2018 “Cadre Harmonisé” analysis, about 14 000 people (out of 1.9 million) are estimated to be in need of food assistance up to August 2019, with a slight increase from 12 000 food insecure in March-May 2018.

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